An adage says that if the shoe fits you wear it. This is exactly what the Laroo Pece MP elect Nobert Mao is trying to do while aiming at dethroning Anita Among the current speaker of Ugandan parliament also the Bukedea District Woman MP, from the seat.
Mao subscribes to the opposition Democratic Party (DP) where he is the current president general. He is also holding a portfolio of the Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs having entered into a political deal with the ruling NRM party head- president Yoweri Museveni under the famous signed; DP-NRM Cooperation Agreement, through which both parties forged cordial political working relationship.
Among on the other hand is an NRM 2nd National Vice Chairperson. However, she is struggling to retain her speakership seat after five other aspirants following the January 15,2026, elections declared to run against her come May election for the next speaker of the 12th parliament. The five aspirants include; the Aringa South MP Alion Odria, Mbale District Woman MP Lydia Wanyoto, Bukono MP also the State Minister for Housing Persis Namuganza, Masindi District Woman MP Florence Asiimwe and Nobert Mao who has visibly posed serious threat to the Among’s speakership ambitions.
Being the head of legislature, one of the arms constituting the government and a senior ruling party-political mobilizer, Among, automatically becomes highly influential with adequate capabilities to shield her throne from any imminent political threat like the one she is faced with, and or even to re sale her bid.
However, from where the NRA/NRM government establishment is standing, having overstayed in control of the state power now for 40 years+, it will never be easy for her to sail through as usual, due to a number of intervening political dynamics some of which will necessitate the deployment of keen focus for regime survival.
Where the ship has reached, with all utmost love from the state power holders to the Bukedea girl and their generous wishes to her, they are left with no any other option but to offload her if it is to arrive on the next landing destination un interrupted.
But what makes Mao to stand more chances of beating Among if an election was held today?
What Gives Mao an Edge Over Among.
First, the 12th parliament will play a pivotal role in shaping the new trajectory and political landscape of Uganda. Some of the strategic awaiting tasks include handling the succession question or political transition from president Museveni to a new leader of a country that has never witnessed peaceful transfer of the power since independence (1961), passing strategic legislations that should guarantee his retirement safety mechanisms and benefits, navigating the prevailing politics of hostility and extremism, balancing the political atmosphere, etc. considering obviously his current political cooperation with the head of state Gen. Museveni and other components of the deep state, Mao gains an edge over Among. None of the above factors seem to fall in favor of the sitting speaker if not her main challenger in the race.
As presaged by the sources close to the controllers of the state power that by the end of Museveni’s appearance on the ballot, Uganda’s political landscape should be morass like Kenya’s where the politics is driven more by the interests and alliances, Mao is one of the preferable actors as far as ensuring that it is imported to this country’s politics is concerned.
As one of the rules for succession dictates, power holders usually and easily do not transfer it to the successors they least trust or that haven’t been tested, save for the very vibrant democracies. With this, Mao stands more chances of receiving the speakership anointing since is better placed to execute the job based on all issues at stake. He now proves to have been tested by the retiring president Museveni and other state authorities, given his proximate distance to them. this means that, they can now ably engage their NRM majority parliamentary caucus to appreciate where to put their vote.
Second, Mao is an ideologue being organically and actively grounded in the principle of dialogue that he uses as a tool to achieve his political scores dating back from the LRA war times in Northern Uganda, unlike Among who seem to be a believer in the winner takes it all approach, regardless of what eventual consequences may be. The current political environment in Uganda therefore, largely requires more of a tension and chest thumping de scalation approach than fueling, which rimes well with Mao.
Thirdly, speaker Among is under sanctions by the international community. They include the UK, USA and their other allied partners. The imposed sanctions arose from the accusations of corruption and human rights violations against Among and several other government officials by the two great powers. The imposed USA sanctions that came to an effect in May 2024, came with among other restrictions; travel ban. UK was the first to announce hers in April 2024 under the Global Anti-Corruption Regime arrangement, came with freezing of the Speakers property in the European country and travel restrictions. She however, denied owning a house in the UK, which forced president Museveni to order for an institution of a probe into the claims.
The implication of the imposed sanctions is that, the current Ugandan parliament Speaker cannot execute any parliamentary business under the auspices of Common Wealth parliamentary arrangement and its allied partner states, such as the USA since she faces travel restrictions. This thus, opens wide the gate and chances of Mao to gain an entry into the speakership mandate.
Other common factors; Mao is a lawyer highly experienced in parliamentary and local government business that he previously gained in his early youthful days after the university as Gulu municipality MP and district chairperson, from which he earned himself the title; chairman Mao popularly tied to the Chinese Common Man’s Party’s powerful chairman – Mao Zedong, to refer to his district chairperson. He is an intelligent, eloquent, commanding integrity and the language. Although is a Minister in Museveni’s government, he has often times seen criticizing some of its ills and power abuses, which political overs say sets him on a trajectory that he can exercise objectivity if he was an august house Speaker.
How the 2026 Speakership Race May Be an Uphill to the Incumbent.
Emergence of Lydia Wanyoto and Persis Namuganza, all from a broader eastern region where the current Speaker comes from, adversely affects her vote. Wanyoto a gishu from masaba land (Bugisu sub region) discounts Among’s vote from some parliamentarians in that region. FDC top party leaders who feel that Among has turned their party into a poaching ground of their good leaders to NRM party, one from Bugisu and another from Teso, likely to persuade their block voters (MPS) to deny her their vote. Namuganza an independent contender, who comes from Busoga sub region where Among’s political nemesis and sub regional political influential figure former Speaker Rebecca Kadaga hails, is also likely to ride on that and Kadaga’s rivalry with Among, to eat into the vote for some independent electors whose number is high in the next parliament, and regional MPS that are pro Kadaga. Speaker Among comes from Teso sub region. It is said by sources that her relationship with some of the sub region leaders is frost, which may affect her vote from her home ground.
Efforts to harvest the Karamoja vote for the incumbent Speaker may be elusive as some voters from the sub region are said to have disputes with her arising out of Mabaati scandal under which she is implicated, and the just concluded elections. In any case, Karamoja and Northern Uganda where Mao comes from share certain traits to some extent, meaning this may create an uphill task to the incumbent to gain votes from the sub region MPS.
The Northern Uganda vote, Mao’s home base, may not easily fall to the incumbent, considering that the sub region wish to regain the seat which was once under the occupation of the son of the soil late Jacob Lokori Oulanya, and this may be the right time for them to reclaim it. The retirement of the CJ Owiny Dollo who was coming from the same region impacts the incumbent Speaker’s vote from the sub region. Justice Dollo an influential figure in Acholi affairs, as an elder and a good friend of Mao is another indispensable factor. Dollo was heading the judiciary, one of the government arms from which the Northerners drew a feeling of being part of the government, which is not the case currently. Apart from MP Anthony Akol who was poached from FDC to the NRM by the 2nd NRM National Vice Chairperson, the rest will not openly express their choice from what we gather, they will vote for their brother.
Lango sub region where the UPC commands some MP number will not easily vote for Among considering that the government chief whip Hamson Obua who had assured the president during his campaigns that the subregion will vote for NRM, had terribly lost an election to one UPC legislator. West Nile vote will not come smoothly either, according to the observers.
Western Uganda’s vote will largely be dependent on the interests of the giants in the several centers of the state power; Gen. Saleh, Gen. Muhoozi and Gen. Museveni. Gen. Muhoozi and Saleh according to our reliable sources, support Mao.
Buganda sub region vote may not easily fall to the incumbent since the NRM MPS decision from the sub region will highly be influenced by the god fathers from several government power centers. Another thing is that, due to the presence of the leading opposition NUP party there, the vote for Among who apparently does not touch base with the party top leadership from their MPS, may not come through easily.
If the CDF and Gen. Saleh’s maintain their weight behind Mao, the 10 UPDF representative’s vote will obviously not go the incumbent candidate unless they have changed their mind going forward.
In conclusion, unless the landscape changes between now and May, all the factors in the play of the speakership race game doesn’t seem to suggest to favor the incumbent candidate Anita Among.
